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Invesco mortgage Capital inc (IVR) Q2 2021 income call Transcript

a close up of a logo: Invesco Mortgage Capital inc (IVR) Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript © offered with the aid of The Motley idiot Invesco mortgage Capital inc (IVR) Q2 2021 earnings name Transcript

Invesco mortgage Capital inc (NYSE: IVR)

CONSTELLATION brands, INC.

Q2 2021 profits name

Aug 5, 2021, 9:00 a.m. ET

Contents:
  • organized Remarks
  • Questions and solutions
  • name contributors
  • organized Remarks:

    Operator

    Welcome to the Invesco loan Capital 2d quarter 2021 investor conference call. [Operator Instructions]

    Now i would like to turn the call over to Jack Bateman in Investor family members. Mr. Bateman, you may additionally begin your call.

    subsidized:

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    this article is a transcript of this convention name produced for The Motley idiot. whereas we try for our silly foremost, there may well be blunders, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. as with all our articles, The Motley idiot does not anticipate any responsibility on your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including taking note of the call your self and studying the business's SEC filings. Please see our terms and stipulations for extra details, including our necessary Capitalized Disclaimers of liability.

    The Motley fool has no place in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley idiot has a disclosure coverage.

    Jack Bateman -- Investor members of the family

    thank you and welcome to the Invesco mortgage Capital's second quarter 2021 profits name. The administration group and that i are delighted you have got joined us and we seem forward to sharing with you our prepared remarks and conducting a question-and-reply session.

    before turning the name over to our CEO, John Anzalone, i wished to provide a reminder that statements made in this convention call and the related presentation may encompass forward-searching statements which mirror administration's expectations about future movements and our ordinary plans and performance. These forward-looking statements are made as of nowadays and aren't guarantees.

    They contain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and there can also be no assurance that exact results will no longer fluctuate materially from our expectations. For a discussion of those risks and uncertainties, please see the dangers described in our most recent Annual document on form 10-ok and subsequent filings with the SEC. Invesco makes no responsibility to replace any ahead-looking observation.

    We may also discuss non-GAAP financial measures throughout modern day call. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures could be discovered on the end of our profits presentation. To view the slide presentation these days, you can also entry our site at invescomortgagecapital.com and click on on the Q2 2021 salary Presentation hyperlink beneath Investor relations. once more, welcome and thanks for becoming a member of us these days.

    i will now flip the name over to John Anzalone. John?

    John Anzalone, CFA -- Chief government Officer

    decent morning and welcome to Invesco personal loan Capital's 2d quarter salary name. i will provide some short comments earlier than turning the call over to our Chief funding Officer, Brian Norris, to focus on the current portfolio in additional detail. additionally joining us on the call to take part within the Q&A are, our President, Kevin Collins, our CFO, Lee Phegley and our COO, Dave Lyle.

    i am completely satisfied to announce revenue accessible for distribution for the 2d quarter got here in at $0.10 per share. As we you mentioned in our press free up, we now have replaced the term core revenue with profits available for distribution. here's in step with altering industry conventions and does not mirror any change in how the measure is calculated.despite a very challenging quarter for agency mortgages, salary attainable for distribution continue to be supported by using mighty dollar rolls, fantastically slow prepayment speeds on our particular pool collateral and the extra favorable reinvestment ambiance.

    right through the quarter, we made development in rebalancing our capital structure by means of redeeming all $140 million of our sequence A favourite stock and elevating an extra $one hundred forty five.9 million of standard fairness.The portfolio remains predominantly company concentrated with ninety two% of our equity and 99% of our property allotted to company mortgages. Our liquidity place remains effective as we held $651 million of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments at quarter-end. agency mortgages sharply underperformed all the way through the quarter, as multiplied internet provide, decreased demand for commercial banks, persistent prepayment concerns and an elevated probability of the Federal Reserve's timeline for decreasing asset purchases would be accelerated greater than offset regular Fed demand. Our book value performance mirrored this underperformance, ending the quarter down 12% to $3.21.

    looking ahead, many the headwinds that the mortgage bases faced via within the 2nd quarter continue to be intact. Prepayment speeds moderated during the quarter, however remained multiplied and the decrease hobby fee environment at quarter-end may still keep prepayments near historical highs over the coming months. raises in inflation throughout many constituents of the financial system maintain the uncertainty across the Fed's plan to taper its asset purchases at a heightened degree. whereas these factors remains challenging, we predict that the contemporary widening of spreads along with a favorable funding atmosphere via each normal repo and by the use of greenback rolls to continue to support help the profits vigour of our portfolio over the coming quarters.

    i will cease here and let Brian go through the portfolio.

    Brian P. Norris, CFA -- Chief funding Officer

    Thanks John and good morning to every person on the call. i will be able to begin on slide 4, within the higher left-hand chart, which particulars the alterations within the U.S. treasury yield curves considering that yr-conclusion. As indicated by way of the darkish blue line, the second quarter ended with a partial reversal of the primary quarter sharp upward push in long term yields, resulting in a knocking down of the yield curve. Market optimism, ensuing largely from the a hit rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations and reopening of the carrier sector, grew to be a bit of extra muted after an uptick in circumstances due to the extra contagious Delta variant. in addition, the Federal Reserve efficaciously dampened the market's initial difficulty involving the first-rate raise in year-over-yr inflation via comfortably communicating their projections for a softening of inflation pressures because the reopening of the economic climate strikes forward.

    As referred to, these adjustments resulted in a ball knocking down of the yield curve as short time period hobby costs with three years or less to maturity expanded through a modest 5 to 10 foundation elements, whereas long run 10 to 30 yr fees declined about 30 foundation facets. This flow was exacerbated by using short protecting in the pastime rate swap market as positions designed to advantage from a flow higher in quotes have been compelled to unwind, resulting in tighter swap spreads right through the quarter, as indicated by way of the chart in the lessen left hand section of slide 4. both the flatter yield curve and tighter swap spreads had negative ramifications for the agency RMBS market despite a continuation of pleasing funding quotes, as indicated in the higher correct-hand chart and powerful demand from both the Federal Reserve and business banks, indicated in the reduce right hand chart.

    relocating on to slip five, where we deliver greater aspect on the company RMBS market. within the higher left hand chart, we reveal yr-to-date typical decrease coupon company RMBS efficiency versus swap hedges highlighting the 2nd quarter in grey. As which you could see, company mortgages underperformed sharply in may additionally and June offsetting modest gains in April because the flatter yield curve led to decreased demand from industrial banks while the decrease within the 30-year loan quotes increased prepayment issues. company MBS buyers, given the sharp financial recovery and hawkish commentary from nonvoting FOMC individuals, begun to cost within the competencies for an earlier than anticipated tapering of asset purchases, including the possibility of a quicker pace or prior start in company RMBS relative to U.S. Treasury purchases.

    moreover, internet supply remained improved totaling $290 billion all through the quarter, which become double the annual regular all the way through the 10-12 months length from 2010 to 2019. The $470 billion of web supply all over the first half of 2021 well-nigh suits the $508 billion of net deliver for the total 12 months 2020. And however we expect the pace of web issuance to decline all over the second half of the 12 months, 2021 annual market projections have increased to over $seven hundred billion, a ways surpassing 2020's checklist total. distinct pool payups, as proven within the higher appropriate, have been fantastically unchanged after colossal underperformance in the first quarter as prepayment speeds showed a modest decline from increased ranges given the regular lag from higher loan rates in February and March. We are expecting the contemporary decline in personal loan prices, mixed with the strength of the housing markets, to maintain prepayment speeds improved in the coming months.

    ultimately, the lower appropriate hand chart details the implied financing cost for greenback roll transactions and 30-yr 2%, 2.5% and 3% TBAs. The implied financing price is the reinvestment rate for which an investor is detached between taking beginning of a personal loan pool or rolling the TBA contract forward one month. As indicated within the chart, implied financing quotes enhanced during the quarter as the yield curve flattened, expanding the elegance of the dollar roll marketplace for traders in decrease coupons.

    Slide six offers detail on our company RMBS investments and our activity all through the second quarter. accelerated valuations early in the quarter, mixed with increasing headwinds in the sector, brought on us to cut back publicity to agency RMBS through a mixture of asset revenue and prepayments. As indicated in the upper left hand chart, our exposures remain concentrated in reduce coupons 30-year 2% and a couple of.5% detailed swimming pools and TBA. youngsters, we moved modestly greater within the coupon inventory as cheaper valuations and 30-yr 3% provided an exquisite entry point.

    all over the quarter, we bought $1.6 billion of 30-12 months three% distinct swimming pools funded via income of 30 yr 2.5% pools as better prices and wider spreads more suitable projected returns in greater coupons. throughout the quarter, we endured to rotate in the decrease payup specific swimming pools as we remain focused on mitigating our exposure to improved payups. As indicated within the chart on the backside of slide six, we offered higher payup reports, similar to loan stability and geo whereas expanding allocation to lessen payup new construction, high LTV and low FICO studies.

    Our certain pool holdings had a weighted usual payups of 0.6 points as of 6/30, a modest increase from 0.5 factor as of 3/31, reflective of our circulate in higher coupons. The weighted ordinary yield on our agency RMBS holdings more advantageous 16 groundwork facets to 2.04% as of quarter-end whereas prepayments on our holdings continue to be low at 6.four CPR for the quarter. We agree with the power of the dollar roll market and wider spreads existing eye-catching entry aspects with ROEs on decrease coupon dollar rolls within the mid-teens and distinctive pools ranging from 9% to eleven%.

    Our last credit score investments are particular on slide seven with non-agency CMBS representing essentially 60% of the $108 million portfolio. The decline all the way through the quarter is reflective of bond maturities and paydowns without a asset earnings all through the quarter. Our $74 million of last credit score securities are excessive quality, with 90% rated single-A or better and we continue to be at ease with the credit score profile of our remaining holdings. youngsters we anticipate restrained near term expense appreciation, we accept as true with these assets are pleasing holdings as one hundred% are held on an unlevered groundwork and supply eye-catching unlevered yields.

    ultimately, slide eight details our funding publication at quarter-end, as proven in the chart on the higher left. Repurchase agreements collateralized by means of company RMBS declined to $7.9 billion as of June 30, given the modest decline in our holdings. Hedges linked to these borrowings reduced to a net $5.three billion notional of pay fastened, obtain floating pastime fee swaps, as extra self assurance in the period of the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary coverage stance provide an opportunity to cut back our hedge ratio from seventy seven% to 67% all over the quarter.

    The weighted usual hobby price on our hedge booklet remained unchanged at 0.41% while further improvements in company RMBS borrowing charges ended in a decline in our weighted typical funding cost to 0.1% as of June 30. so as to hedge extra exposures further out the yield curve, we held $1.3 billion notional of ahead starting hobby rate swaps, with beginning dates in 2023, concurrent with our expectations for advantage adjustments in monetary policy. Our economic leverage when together with TBA exposure ticked modestly larger all through to six.eight instances debt to fairness as we remained conservatively placed given the rich valuations in our target property.

    To conclude our organized remarks, the 2nd quarter changed into a challenging one for agency RMBS investors, representing probably the most desirable five worst quarters for relative performance on the grounds that the eu debt crisis within the fall of 2011 and combined with the underperformance in the first quarter, probably the most worst six-month returns due to the fact 2008. however company RMBS valuations remained at especially excessive stages on a ancient foundation, we consider the elevated valuations and different exceptional mounted profits options should still maintain any knowledge for additional agency RMBS underperformance rather muted compared to the primary half of the yr. Positively, net provide should still wane as we stream into the second half of the yr and robust financial institution and Federal Reserve demand should continue to help the market with latest expectations of early 2022 for the beginning of a taper in asset purchases.

    thanks on your persevered assist for Invesco mortgage Capital and now we will open the line for Q&A.

    Questions and answers:

    Operator

    [Operator Instructions] And the primary question is coming from Doug Harter of credit score Suisse. Your line is open.

    Josh Bolton -- credit Suisse -- Analyst

    decent morning every person. this is Josh, on for Doug. I appreciate the colour on muted unfold widening in the back half of the year expected. I just desired to get your techniques on how a whole lot more spread widening you suppose we might potentially see ahead of a Fed taper versus how a great deal may additionally already be priced in? Thanks.

    Brian P. Norris, CFA -- Chief funding Officer

    yes, Josh. hello, this is Brian. we now have seen about 25 groundwork points of widening from the varieties that we saw in mid-may additionally. The expectation is that we are going to doubtless see one other 10 to 15 foundation aspect of widening. that's no longer always going to ensue before tapering starts however variety of right through the manner. So we feel that any additional widening will be a lot greater gradual than what we saw right through the 2d quarter. So I suppose sooner or later about 40 foundation facets wider from the types that we saw in may is a reasonable assumption over the next, call it, couple of quarters.

    Josh Bolton -- credit Suisse -- Analyst

    first-rate. Makes feel. Thanks for that, Brian. after which curious if you might provide us an replace on how booklet price has trended quarter-to-date? thank you.

    Brian P. Norris, CFA -- Chief investment Officer

    sure. Quarter-to-date, we're roughly down about 2%.

    Josh Bolton -- credit Suisse -- Analyst

    top notch. Thanks so a good deal for the comments.

    Operator

    [Operator Instructions] The next question is coming from Trevor Cranston, JMP Securities.

    Trevor Cranston -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

    hi. Thanks. decent morning. i was wondering if you can discuss your outlook for prepay speeds with rates carrying on with to fall in July, the removal of the hostile market can charge? And principally, how responsive you think the coupons you guys own would be to loan charges dropping again meaningfully under three%?

    Brian P. Norris, CFA -- Chief investment Officer

    yes. hello Trevor, here's Brian. I consider generically speaking for the market, we predict prepayment speeds to continue to be pretty elevated. As you noted, I believe the 30-12 months mortgage price is around 2.eighty% now. So actually it's dropped forty or 50 groundwork facets from March levels. So we think that prepay speeds in particular in 2.5% coupons and higher are going to remain improved.

    For our bonds, we continue to see relatively low ranges of prepayments and that's in part due to, smartly, the inability of seasoning of our holdings. So we do are expecting that to go with the flow a bit bit greater. We do not are expecting it to be too dramatic. We nevertheless have a fair quantity of our holdings in 2% pools, which we are expecting to proceed to pay fantastically slow at these expense levels. If we were to circulation even lessen than that could come into query. however we are expecting our 2.5% and 3% pools to glide a bit bit larger from right here but are 2% to be particularly good.

    Trevor Cranston -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

    obtained it. okay. it really is positive. and then with respect to the activity fee atmosphere, it seems like company spreads been extra strong within the third quarter, as costs have come down. i was simply curious to get your thoughts on how you feel MBS would often operate in tenure does continue to stream lower and the yield curve flattens? And conversely, the way you consider they are performing if they get lower back up in costs once again?

    Brian P. Norris, CFA -- Chief funding Officer

    yes. The widening that we have seen due to the fact that quarter-conclusion has been a bit bit more gradual, as we cited, relative to kind of the 2d half of the 2d quarter. Mortgages should continue to underperform and to ball flattens. So as long as costs continue to rally. however conversely, I believe mortgages could do good enough. I feel banks have a decent amount of cash to place to work. so that they are just looking forward to sort of a modest again up in prices and mortgages should tackle that pretty neatly.

    Trevor Cranston -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

    ok. bought it. I recognize the feedback. thank you.

    Operator

    The subsequent query is coming from Jason Stewart, JonesTrading. Your line is open.

    Jason Stewart -- JonesTrading -- Analyst

    hello. good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. a brief observe-up, I guess, on the FHFA changes. How are you thinking about what Senator Thompson can also or may additionally not do in positioning the portfolio for any abilities have an impact on?

    Brian P. Norris, CFA -- Chief investment Officer

    yes. We do believe that the new changes that on the FHFA should be extra borrower pleasant, which skill that it is going to be more straightforward for better coupon borrowers and decrease credit score debtors to refinance. so that means that higher coupons should still continue to peer multiplied prepayments, chiefly at these price ranges. So we've prevented the rest bigger than 3% coupon. And we feel that these coupons will proceed to fight in this ambiance.

    Jason Stewart -- JonesTrading -- Analyst

    k. Do you have got a condominium view on how the coverage evolves from this factor going ahead?

    Brian P. Norris, CFA -- Chief funding Officer

    so far as conservatorship, I feel that they are naturally going to method that more slowly than the previous administration. So I suppose we've a good amount of time. however once again, I feel the new policies may be extra geared towards being borrower friendly and lengthening entry to these lessen personal loan rates.

    Jason Stewart -- JonesTrading -- Analyst

    ok. I appreciate it. Thanks.

    Operator

    at present, we haven't any extra questions in queue.

    John Anzalone, CFA -- Chief govt Officer

    ok. well, i need to thank every person for joining us on the call and we look ahead to speakme to you subsequent quarter. Thanks.

    Operator

    [Operator Closing Remarks]

    period: 20 minutes

    name contributors:

    Jack Bateman -- Investor members of the family

    John Anzalone, CFA -- Chief govt Officer

    Brian P. Norris, CFA -- Chief funding Officer

    Josh Bolton -- credit Suisse -- Analyst

    Trevor Cranston -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

    Jason Stewart -- JonesTrading -- Analyst

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